China's port throughput growth likely to slow in 2024 with downside risks
On February 18, international rating agency Fitch Ratings said that China's port throughput growth may slow in 2024 and is at risk of declining due to weak global external demand and manufacturing.
Cargo throughput and container throughput at China's eight major seaports grew 4% and 6% year-on-year, respectively, in the fourth quarter of 2023. According to Fitch, growth drivers include new shipping routes, increased container capacity, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), China's Belt and Road Initiative, the development of intermodal transportation, and an increase in the number of containers transported by rail between China and Europe.
It is noted that the decline in China's exports slowed from 11% in 3Q23 to 3% in 4Q23. Exports to ASEAN and the EU fell by 9.3% and 9.7% in Q4, following declines of 17.0% and 17.5% in Q3 respectively. The decline in exports to the US also slowed to 3% in 4Q23 from 14.3% in 3Q23. The decline in demand from ASEAN, the EU, and the U.S. was influenced by the resilience of exports to Russia, which grew by 24% in 4Q2023.
Fitch expects throughput growth to slow in 2024 as the Red Sea conflict is likely to continue to disrupt global supply chains. In addition to the impact of the Red Sea conflict, China's throughput growth will be cushioned by the new Western Land-Sea Corridor, RCEP, China-Europe railroads, and sea-river linkages.